The Q2 2026 Class A Atlas Office Index finds rent stabilization across most Tier 1 markets, accelerating trophy demand in APAC core CBDs, and a widening Class A-to-Class B rent gap that is reshaping occupier shortlists.

  • APAC trophy markets (Singapore, Tokyo, Hong Kong Central) are the tightest in the Index — vacancy on top-tier floors below 4% in all three.
  • The Class A-to-Class B rent premium has widened to an average of 38% across 20 markets, up from 29% in Q2 2024.
  • AI company demand is a measurable driver in San Francisco, New York, London, and Singapore — accounting for an estimated 15–22% of new leasing volume in those CBDs.
  • US Sun Belt markets (Dallas, Houston, Austin) remain the most tenant-favorable large markets — vacancy above 18% with 18–24 months rent-free available on direct Class A.
  • ESG-certified stock commands a 12–18% rent premium vs non-certified in all eight EMEA markets we track, up from 6–10% in 2023.

Q2 2026 Class A Atlas Office Index — Trophy flight to quality widens the Class A/B spread

The Q2 2026 Class A Atlas Office Index finds rent stabilization across most Tier 1 markets, accelerating trophy demand in APAC core CBDs, and a widening Class A-to-Class B rent gap that is reshaping occupier shortlists.

TL;DR

  • APAC trophy markets (Singapore, Tokyo, Hong Kong Central) are the tightest in the Index — vacancy on top-tier floors below 4% in all three.
  • The Class A-to-Class B rent premium has widened to an average of 38% across 20 markets, up from 29% in Q2 2024.
  • AI company demand is a measurable driver in San Francisco, New York, London, and Singapore — accounting for an estimated 15–22% of new leasing volume in those CBDs.
  • US Sun Belt markets (Dallas, Houston, Austin) remain the most tenant-favorable large markets — vacancy above 18% with 18–24 months rent-free available on direct Class A.
  • ESG-certified stock commands a 12–18% rent premium vs non-certified in all eight EMEA markets we track, up from 6–10% in 2023.

Risers

  • Singapore #1 (was #2) — Marina Bay trophy vacancy at 2.8%. Rent-free durations contracting; landlord TI contribution now below $80/sqft.
  • Tokyo #2 (was #4) — Marunouchi/Otemachi vacancy tightest since 2019. Sustained inbound HQ demand from US tech and financial services.
  • London #3 (was #3) — City Core and West End trophy stock both posting <5% vacancy. ESG-certified rent premium now 16% vs non-certified.

Fallers

  • San Francisco #11 (was #8) — Overall vacancy still elevated at 28%, but AI-cluster demand in SoMa/Mission is creating a two-speed market within the metro.
  • Hong Kong #8 (was #6) — Central trophy holdings stable, but overall market vacancy remains above 13% as financial services headcount normalises.

Trophy flight to quality is the defining story of 2026

The gap between Class A and Class B office has never been wider by our measure. Across the 20 markets in the Class A Atlas Office Index, the median rent premium for certified Class A over comparable Class B stands at 38% as of Q2 2026 — up from 29% in Q2 2024 and 19% in Q2 2022. The post-pandemic barbell is now fully formed: trophy and prime floors in core CBDs are absorbing demand, while non-certified secondary stock is softening across all three regions. Occupiers who locked short lease terms in 2020–2022 expecting further rent corrections in Class A are now facing the opposite dynamic in APAC and EMEA core — a rising market with contracting concession packages.

APAC: Singapore and Tokyo are leading the next tightening leg

Singapore Marina Bay and Tokyo Marunouchi/Otemachi are posting the two tightest trophy-floor vacancy figures in our global coverage at 2.8% and 3.1% respectively. Both markets are absorbing inbound corporate HQ activity at a pace not seen since pre-2020, driven by US and European financial services and technology firms designating APAC anchor offices. The practical implication for occupiers: expect single-digit-month rent-free packages on prime floors, limited landlord TI contribution beyond Category A, and landlord preference for longer terms (7–10 years) over short or break-heavy leases. Shortlisted floors in Raffles Place and Marunouchi are under offer within weeks of availability. Occupiers should carry backup options in Melbourne and Seoul — both of which offer comparable talent depth at materially lower occupancy cost.

AI demand is reshaping leasing velocity in four cities

AI and machine-learning company demand is now a statistically measurable driver of new Class A leasing in San Francisco (SoMa/Mission), New York (Midtown South/Hudson Yards), London (King's Cross/Tech City), and Singapore (one-north/Mapletree). Estimated AI-related leasing as a share of total new-lease volume in these CBDs ranges from 15% to 22% — a share that did not exist as a distinct category two years ago. Notably, AI firms are selecting Class A at a disproportionate rate versus Class B, driven by talent attraction arguments (prestige address for engineering hiring), power-density requirements (some AI infrastructure workloads require dedicated power infrastructure), and proximity to co-investment networks in the same buildings. Class A Atlas expects this demand segment to sustain above-market velocity through at least 2027.

US Sun Belt: the most tenant-favorable large Class A market in the world

Dallas, Houston, and Austin collectively represent the largest pocket of tenant leverage in global Class A leasing. Combined direct vacancy across these three metros exceeds 18% — compared with a global Class A average of 12.4% — and landlords in trophy assets are actively offering 18–24 months rent-free on a 10-year term, fit-out">fit-out contributions in the $120–$180/sqft range, and below-market headline rents to drive occupancy. Talent depth scores for these markets are lower than gateway markets but improving materially year-on-year, anchored by corporate relocations from California and the Northeast. For occupiers with flexible location mandates and cost sensitivity, these are the best negotiating conditions in any major Class A market.

ESG premium: from differentiator to underwriting criterion

The Class A Atlas ESG-certified rent premium — the spread between LEED Platinum/BREEAM Excellent/CASBEE S-rated stock and non-certified Class A in the same submarket — stands at 12–18% across all eight EMEA markets we track as of Q2 2026. In Amsterdam and Paris, where landlords have moved fastest on net-zero lease clauses, the premium exceeds 20% on prime assets. The practical implication is that ESG compliance has moved from a negotiating differentiator to an underwriting criterion: occupiers who sign non-certified leases in EMEA are now carrying renewal risk if building certification lapses or the landlord introduces compliance obligations mid-term. Our recommendation: ESG fit-out alignment and building certification should be assessed before HoTs, not at due diligence.

What to watch in Q3 2026

Three dynamics deserve close attention heading into H2 2026. First, supply pressure in London: 3.8 million sqft of new development is expected to complete in the City and West End through Q4 2026, with pre-leasing rates lower than at equivalent stages of the prior cycle — watch for concession normalisation if speculative space hits the market simultaneously. Second, India acceleration: Bangalore and Delhi-NCR are both posting strong absorption for the third consecutive quarter; occupiers establishing GBS or engineering centres should move shortlists to site selection before the prime submarket windows close. Third, the San Francisco two-speed market: overall vacancy remains high but Class A-specific vacancy in SoMa/Mission is below 9% and tightening — the headline metro number is increasingly misleading for Class A-quality occupiers.

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