The Q1 2026 Index refresh finds the post-2022 EMEA speculative development pipeline largely absorbed, India Tier 1 markets recording their strongest trophy-floor demand in a decade, and concession normalisation beginning in gateway APAC markets.
The Q1 2026 Index refresh finds the post-2022 EMEA speculative development pipeline largely absorbed, India Tier 1 markets recording their strongest trophy-floor demand in a decade, and concession normalisation beginning in gateway APAC markets.
The 2021–2023 EMEA Class A development wave — concentrated in London City and West End, Paris La Défense, Amsterdam South Axis, and Frankfurt CBD — has largely been absorbed. Pre-leasing rates across major completions expected in H1 2026 average 78%, with London's pipeline at 84% pre-let, the highest pre-leasing ratio since the post-GFC cycle. What this means for occupiers: the window for large-floor direct deals on newly completed stock is closing faster than anticipated. Tenants requiring 50,000+ sqft of contiguous trophy space in London or Amsterdam should be in the market now, not waiting for economic clarity to return.
Bangalore and Delhi-NCR are registering the most significant composite score improvements in the Q1 2026 Index refresh — both cities up 6+ points on the 0–100 scale since Q4 2025. The driver is a combination of global captive expansion (technology and financial services firms establishing or expanding GBS/engineering centres), record trophy-floor absorption, and net-new corporate HQ relocations to these markets. Prestige tech corridor vacancy in Bangalore is at 5.1% — the tightest since we began tracking it. The cost competitiveness argument remains compelling: top-grade Class A in Bangalore clears at approximately $20/sqft/yr USD equivalent versus $80–$120/sqft/yr for comparable quality in Singapore or London. Occupiers establishing back-office or GBS operations should be modelling India aggressively.
The 2023–2025 concession cycle in Singapore and Tokyo — driven by supply completions and corporate caution post-pandemic — is normalising. Average rent-free durations on direct Class A in Singapore Marina Bay have contracted by 2.5 months since Q3 2025, and landlord TI contribution is below $80/sqft on prime floors for the first time since 2021. Tokyo Marunouchi landlords are declining to offer rent-free packages on sub-5,000 sqm floorplates entirely. The implication: occupiers who locked post-pandemic terms (12–18 months rent-free, generous TI) are sitting on valuable leases — consider renewal">early renewal if your term has 3–4 years remaining and you are committed to these submarkets.
New York's headline metro vacancy of 14.2% is deeply misleading for Class A-quality occupiers. Trophy stock in Midtown South (Hudson Yards, Chelsea, Flatiron) is running below 8% vacancy and was the most active large-floor leasing cluster in the Americas in H2 2025. Conventional Midtown trophy (Park Avenue, Sixth Avenue) is posting 9–11% vacancy with 12–15 months rent-free available on 10-year terms. Below-grade Class A — assets built before 2000 without recent certification — is the market driving the headline number, with vacancy exceeding 20% and landlords offering unprecedented concession packages to compete. For Class A occupiers, New York is a tighter market than the headline data suggests.
São Paulo and Mexico City are both showing the first sustained leasing velocity improvements since 2023, driven by nearshoring demand (Mexico City), commodity sector activity (São Paulo), and renewed foreign direct investment from US and European occupiers establishing or expanding regional HQ positions. The gains are real but modest — composite scores for both markets remain in the bottom quartile of our Index, reflecting elevated vacancy (São Paulo at 22%, Mexico City at 19%), long-term lease norms, and below-average talent indices. The opportunity is primarily for cost-sensitive occupiers establishing LatAm regional anchor positions who can benefit from tenant-favorable conditions while demand normalises.